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an additional 15 points; Total points = 15 + 85= 100 points.
1. California Wildfires. Each dry season seems to beget California forest fires. By reading
the news, we have the general impression that severity of the forest fires are worsening. In
this problem, we use data from the last 33 years to quantitatively describe how the fires
are worsening. See Figure 1. Obviously, the severity of the fire season fluctuates: in some
Scatterplot 3 *E
Y: C1:C34
2200000
2000000
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
-200000
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Figure 1: The number of acres on fire by year.
years the fire season is manageable and in other years the season is quite severe. Here, a
line has been fit to the data by a technique called linear regression (you may encounter
this technique in a statistics course). Software has told us that the red line, the line of
best fit, is given as
y = 24734.x – 48902819
• Questions are on next page.
• Source: https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/
• To see the original data, view Perusall > Exam 1 Supplementary Materials.
PAGE 1 OF 5
POINTS:
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;
(a) (5 points) What are more appropriate variable symbols than x and y?
(b) (5 points) What is the independent variable? What is the dependent variable?
(c) (5 points) Rewrite the equation of the line using the variables in part (a).
(d) (5 points) What are the units of y? Units of x?
(e) (5 points) What are units of the slope? Write a sentence describing the meaning of
the slope.
(f) (5 In a sentence, what is your response (using numbers) to the
“How are California fires worsening each year?”.
+
(g) (5 points) By using the fit (red) line, what is the predicted number of acreage on
fire in the year 2018? By visually inspecting the graph, this value is not close to the
actual acreage in 2018. In a sentence, how do you make sense of the discrepancy?
–
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2. COVID-19 Transmission. As COVID-19 spreads, researchers (in Source A) have found
a linear relationship between the growth rate ratio (GR) and mobility ratio (MR).
Here the growth rate ratio may be thought of in the following manner*:
GR =
average number of cases in last three days
average number of cases in last seven days
* The actual calculation is slightly more complicated, but the above calculation represents
the main idea. The following list breaks the growth rate ratio into three cases:
=
• GR 1: No increase in rate of cases. The average number of cases over the last
three days is the same as the last seven days.
• GR > 1: An increase in rate of cases. The average number of cases over the last
three days is more than the average over the last seven days.
• GR< 1: A decrease in rate of cases. The average number of cases over the last three
days is less than the average over the last seven days.
The mobility ratio is given as the following ratio:
MR
the sum of incoming and outgoing trips within a given county on a given day
the sum of incoming and outgoing trips within a given county on a baseline day
The following list gives two examples of the mobility ratio:
• MR= 0: No trips were made. Everyone is staying home.
• MR=.5: Half of the usual number of trips were made.
The data for Pittsburgh was not listed in Source A, so we will assume Pittsburgh's data
is the same as Philadelphia's. The linear relationship is given below,
GR= .33MR+.84
+
• Questions are on next page.
• Source A: Association between mobility patterns and COVID-19 transmission in the
USA: a mathematical modelling study
• Source B: Google Mobility Reports
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MATH 105
EXAM 1 (COLLABORATIVE)
(a) (5 points) Assume MR= 0. What is GR?
(b) (5 points) Using part (a), write a sentence describing what can be said about the
spread of COVID-19 in Pittsburgh.
(c) (5 points) Assume MR=1. What is GR?
(d) (5 points) Using part (c), write a sentence describing what can be said about the
spread of COVID-19 in Pittsburgh.
(e) (5 points) By tracking the position of Android phones, Google has obtained data of
user's mobility patterns. In Allegheny County surrounding Pittsburgh, Google's data
over the time period Jul. 31 – Sep. 11 is presented in Figure 2. The categories in
Google's data do ot exactly correspond to the definition of mobility ratio Source
A, but we will focus on the Transit Station and Workplace categories to produce an
estimate for MR: each category is near -40%, which equates to MR= .6. Is MR= .6
effective at controlling the spread of COVID-19 in Pittsburgh?
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MATH 105
EXAM 1 (COLLABORATIVE)
Allegheny County
Retail & recreation
Grocery & pharmacy
Parks
-20% compared to baseline
-7% compared to baseline
+85% compared to baseline
+80%
+80%
+80%
+40%
Baseline
+40%
+40%
Baseline
ما را با ما با ما ت
Baseline
-40%
-40%
40%
-80%
Fri, Jul 31
-80%
Fri, Jul 31
Fri, Aug 21
Fri Sep 11
Fri, Aug 21
Fri Sep 11
-80%
Fri, Jul 31
Fri, Aug 21
Fri Sep 11
Transit stations
Workplaces
Residential
-37% compared to baseline
-42% compared to baseline
+11% compared to baseline
+80%
+80%
+80%
+40%
Baseline
+40%
Baseline
+40%
Baseline
-40%
-40%
ry
40%
-80%
Fri, Jul 31
Fri, Aug 21
Fri, Sep 11
-80%
Fri, Jul 31
Fri, Aug 21
Fri, Sep 11
-80%
Fri, Jul 31
Fri, Aug 21
Fri Sep 11
Figure 2: Google's mobility data over July 31 - September 11, 2020.
3. Using the given graph of h(x), Find the the following quantities:
(a) (3 points) h(1)
h(2)
2
(b) (3 points) h(0)
(c) (4 points) Domain of h
х
(d) (4 points) Range of h
-2
2
(e) (3 points) The x-intercept(s)
(f) (3 points) The y-intercept
-2
4. (5 points) Let f(x) = 3x2 – 4x. Find 2f (6x)
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