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Unmaking Decisions – Case

You are the campaign manager for Lisa Kopernick, running for Governor of Western Dakota in 2020. The campaign is a replay of the last election, in which Lisa narrowly lost to the incumbent, Erik Adamsen. Data on that earlier campaign appear below. (SEE ATTACHMENT)Kopernick is a young, progressive female, and the daughter of Eastern European immigrants. Adamsen is an older, conservative male from a wealthy ranching family that’s been in Western Dakota for generations. The last election was bitterly polarizing. It divided the state along generational, political, and ideological lines.It’s now Summer of 2020, and your candidate is three points behind in the polling—a worrisome, but not insurmountable, margin. Your task is to suggest a strategy for the remaining weeks. Lisa has a large cadre of enthusiastic volunteers, but not much money. The strategy, whatever it is, will have to be narrowly focused and aggressively executed.According to your advisors, there are three possible ways forward.1. Spend the money in the last week, on a series of “feel-good” TV ads that emphasize Lisa’s youth, energy, and attractiveness.2. Hire a marketing firm to contact the 10% of Democrats who voted for Adamsen, and the 30% who didn’t vote at all, and try to get them to the polls for Lisa this time out.3. Concentrate on the almost one million people who are eligible to vote but never have. Get them registered, stay in touch with them, and get them to the polls.What is your recommendation? (Granted, there’s not a lot of information here; use what’s available.)Case Assignment1. Write a short paper consisting of your advice to Lisa, and your reasons for offering it.2. The “decision” you’re trying to influence is the decision each voter will make on election day. Specifically, you’ll be trying to “unmake the decision” that many people made four years ago, which was either to vote for Adamsen or to stay home.3. Shamelessly flaunt your detailed knowledge of the material covered in this module. Use it in a tightly reasoned argument. Provide citations and references; Lisa is an associate professor, and she’ll appreciate it.One last word of advice: You’ll need to set aside your own political affiliations and opinions, if any. Get into the role-playing. Lisa’s hired you to run her campaign, and you’re doing the best you can for her. Who knows, she may be president some day! References:Cherry, K. (2017a). What is confirmation bias? Retrieved on 28 February 2018 from https://www.verywell.com/what-is-a-confirmation-bias-2795024 Cherry, K. (2017b). What is cognitive dissonance? Retrieved on 28 February 2018 from https://www.verywell.com/what-is-cognitive-dissonance-2795012 Cook, J., & Lewandowsky, S. (2011). The Debunking Handbook. St. Lucia, Australia: University of Queensland. November 5. ISBN 978-0-646-56812-6. [http://sks.to/debunk] Retrieved on 28 February 2018Dutton, K. (2011). Split-second persuasion: The ancient art and new science of changing minds. New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. Retrieved on 28 February 2018Dyna (2014). Conservatism bias: How to know what new information to focus on (Dynamic Hedge). Retrieved on 28 February 2018 from http://www.dynamichedge.com/2014/11/20/conservatism-bias-how-to-know-what-new-information-to-focus-on/ Effectiviology (2017). The backfire effect: Why facts don’t always change minds. Retrieved on 28 February 2018 from https://effectiviology.com/backfire-effect-facts-dont-change-minds/ Heshman, S. (2015). What is confirmation bias? (Psychology Today) Retrieved on 28 February 2018 from https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/science-choice/201504/what-is-confirmation-bias iResearch (2017h). Sunk cost. Retrieved on 28 February 2018 from http://psychology.iresearchnet.com/social-psychology/decision-making/sunk-cost/ iResearch (2017i). Cognitive dissonance. Retrieved on 28 February 2018 from http://psychology.iresearchnet.com/developmental-psychology/cognitive-development/cognitive-dissonance-2/ James, G. (2017). How to change people’s minds. Attacking beliefs with facts never works. Instead, direct those beliefs to a different conclusion. (Inc. blog) Retrieved on 28 February 2018 from https://www.inc.com/geoffrey-james/how-to-change-peoples-minds.html Leahy, R. (2014). Letting go of sunk costs. (Psychology Today). Retrieved on 28 February 2018 from https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/anxiety-files/201409/letting-go-sunk-costs McRaney, D. (2011). The backfire effect. Retrieved on 28 February 2018 from https://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/06/10/the-backfire-effect/ Perry, S. (2011). Five persuasive ways to change someone’s mind (Psychology Today). Retrieved on 28 February 2018 from https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/creating-in-flow/201105/5-ways-change-someones-mind RatWiki (2017h). Backfire effect (Rational Wiki). Retrieved on 28 February 2018 from http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Backfire_effect Wiki (2017l). Conservatism (belief revision – Wikipedia). Retrieved on 28 February 2018 from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservatism_(belief_revision)

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